المغرب – الاتحاد الأوروبي: التجارة والسياق الاقتصادي الكلي
تجارة المغرب في السلع مع الاتحاد الأوروبي وشركائه الخمسة الأوائل، والتعرض لآلية تعديل حدود الكربون، ومؤشرات صندوق النقد والبنك الدوليين، وأسعار البنك المركزي الأوروبي، والفجوة بين تصريحات المغرب وتصريحات شركائه. لتذكر كل سلسلة معروضة ناشرها وترخيصها وبصمة SHA-256 للاستجابة التي قُرئت منها؛ والبصمة تعرّف الاستجابة ولا تُثبت وحدها كل قيمة. وصفي فقط، وليس نصيحة.
باختصار
- EU imports from Morocco, 12 months
- 26,4 EUR bn
- +1,7 % year on year · 2026-08
- EU exports to Morocco, 12 months
- 37,6 EUR bn
- +3,5 % year on year
- EU share of Morocco-declared exports
- —
- · UN Comtrade
- CBAM goods in EU imports from Morocco
- —
- 2025 · Eurostat · غير مكتمل لسنة 2025: 30 سلسلة منتجات لا تغطي الأشهر الاثني عشر. لا يُحتسب أي منتج مفقود صفراً.
The European Commission states, for 2025, an EU share of 33,7 % of Morocco’s goods trade, on a different basis (archived page below).
EU27 – Morocco trade by month (EUR)
EU imports from MoroccoEU exports to Morocco
Source: Eurostat Comext DS-045409, member-state declarations. Vertical lines: events from the register below (numbered); ticks along the bottom: ECB deposit-rate changes.
By partner and HS chapter, last 12 months
| Chapter | الاتحاد الأوروبي 27 | فرنسا | إسبانيا | بلجيكا | ألمانيا | إيطاليا |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 26.429+2 % | 6.668+1 % | 10.506+3 % | 1.360+1 % | 1.668+10 % | 1.831-11 % |
| 03 · Fish, crustaceans | 1.126-9 % | 5+33 % | 798-10 % | —— | —— | 257-3 % |
| 07 · Vegetables | 1.666-3 % | 970-6 % | 542+11 % | 5+16 % | 5-38 % | 16-17 % |
| 08 · Fruit | 1.436-8 % | 371-13 % | 803-4 % | 17-34 % | 43+72 % | 5-58 % |
| 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | 287-2 % | 9+10 % | 83+18 % | 15-35 % | 1-47 % | 11+36 % |
| 27 · Fuels, electricity | 9-65 % | 1-9 % | 7-68 % | 0+31 % | —— | —— |
| 28 · Inorganic chemicals | 539+34 % | 71+22 % | 229+33 % | 128+8 % | —— | 25— |
| 31 · Fertilisers | 767-18 % | 106-17 % | 124-19 % | 75+25 % | 46— | 63— |
| 61 · Knitted apparel | 700-9 % | 174-19 % | 364-7 % | 5+394 % | 77-0 % | 11-21 % |
| 62 · Woven apparel | 1.913-4 % | 273-13 % | 1.282-1 % | 16-28 % | 88-7 % | 101+2 % |
| 72 · Iron and steel | 16+14 % | 1-58 % | 7— | —— | —— | —— |
| 73 · Iron or steel articles | 68-5 % | 47-1 % | 7-36 % | 1+217 % | 1-9 % | 4— |
| 76 · Aluminium | 117+8 % | 33-8 % | 62+13 % | 6+5 % | 6+241 % | 6-18 % |
| 85 · Electrical machinery | 6.762+10 % | 1.254+12 % | 3.252+4 % | 118+40 % | 855+19 % | 229-10 % |
| 87 · Vehicles | 6.001-4 % | 1.692-0 % | 1.280+5 % | 861-1 % | 105-24 % | 883-19 % |
| 88 · Aircraft | 529+13 % | 516+13 % | 2-1 % | 1+32 % | 8+21 % | —— |
| EU exports to Morocco | 37.554+3 % | 7.736+6 % | 12.599-0 % | 2.046+22 % | 3.867+5 % | 2.922-2 % |
EU imports from Morocco (EUR m). Value in EUR million and change on a year earlier. Chapters are Harmonized System chapters; HS2 rather than SITC so that trade and CBAM exposure share one classification.
التعرض لآلية تعديل حدود الكربون
| Group | Value (EUR m, 2025) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Cement | — | — |
| Electricity | — | — |
| Fertilisers | — | — |
| Iron and steel | — | — |
| Aluminium | — | — |
| Hydrogen | — | — |
| Total | — | — |
Goods in Annex I of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (cement, electricity, fertilisers, iron and steel, aluminium, hydrogen), matched at CN8 where the Annex names CN8 lines and at HS4/HS6 otherwise; every approximation and its measured effect is in data/cbam/annex-i.json. A trade-value share is not embedded emissions or a CBAM liability. Phosphate rock (2510), phosphoric acid (2809) and superphosphates (3103) are not CBAM goods.
الفجوة المرآوية: تصريحات المغرب مقابل تصريحات شركائه
Morocco’s exports to a partner (declared FOB by Morocco) against that partner’s imports from Morocco (declared CIF by the partner). Gap = declared imports ÷ declared exports − 1. A gap between 0 and +10 % is explained by freight and insurance alone.
A gap outside that band is not an established anomaly: origin-versus-destination attribution, transit and re-exports through third-country ports, timing, free zones, confidentiality suppressions and revisions all move it. No conclusion is drawn about any firm. Declared values come from the UN Comtrade public preview, whose redistribution licence is unverified, so only derived ratios are shown.
| Chapter | الاتحاد الأوروبي 27 | فرنسا | إسبانيا | بلجيكا | ألمانيا | إيطاليا |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | ||||||
| 03 · Fish, crustaceans | ||||||
| 07 · Vegetables | ||||||
| 08 · Fruit | ||||||
| 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | ||||||
| 27 · Fuels, electricity | ||||||
| 28 · Inorganic chemicals | ||||||
| 31 · Fertilisers | ||||||
| 61 · Knitted apparel | ||||||
| 62 · Woven apparel | ||||||
| 72 · Iron and steel | ||||||
| 73 · Iron or steel articles | ||||||
| 76 · Aluminium | ||||||
| 85 · Electrical machinery | ||||||
| 87 · Vehicles | ||||||
| 88 · Aircraft |
✓ inside CIF/FOB band (0 – 10 %). n.m.: under USD 10 m on at least one side; the ratio is not meaningful. EU27: member states covered: .
سجل السياسات الأوروبية
Dated, sourced events that touch Morocco – EU trade. The differences below are “change around the event”, not effects: other forces act on the same months.
| # | Date | Instrument | HS chapters | Official source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 مارس 2000 | EU–Morocco Association Agreement (free trade area) enters into force | ALL | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 2 | 1 أكتوبر 2012 | Agreement on additional liberalisation of trade in agricultural, processed agricultural and fisheries products enters into force | 03, 07, 08 | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 3 | 19 يوليوز 2019 | Amendment of the Association Agreement protocols extending tariff preferences to products originating in Western Sahara enters into force | 03, 07, 08 | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 4 | 1 أكتوبر 2023 | CBAM transitional phase starts (reporting only, no certificates), Regulation (EU) 2023/956 | 25, 27, 28, 31, 72, 73, 76 | taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu |
| 5 | 4 أكتوبر 2024 | Court of Justice judgments on the 2019 EU–Morocco agricultural and fisheries agreements (Joined Cases C-778/21 P and C-798/21 P; C-779/21 P and C-799/21 P) and on origin labelling of melons and tomatoes (Case C-399/22) | 03, 07, 08 | curia.europa.eu |
| 6 | 3 أكتوبر 2025 | New amendment of the Association Agreement protocols (replacing the 2019 amendment) provisionally applied | 03, 07, 08 | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 7 | 1 يناير 2026 | CBAM definitive regime applies (authorised declarants and certificates; the Commission's definitive-regime page states a single 50-tonne mass threshold; Regulation (EU) 2025/2083 amended 2023/956) | 25, 27, 28, 31, 72, 73, 76 | taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu |
Change around the event (EU imports from Morocco)
| # | Chapter | الاتحاد الأوروبي 27 | فرنسا | إسبانيا | بلجيكا | ألمانيا | إيطاليا |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | +82,3 pp-46 % → +36 % · n 6/6 | —— → -34 % · n 6/6 | +151,0 pp-67 % → +84 % · n 6/6 | — | — | —-58 % → — · n 6/6 |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 27 · Fuels, electricity | +677,7 pp-46 % → +631 % · n 6/6 | — | +201,0 pp-44 % → +157 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 28 · Inorganic chemicals | +34,2 pp-60 % → -25 % · n 6/6 | +83,6 pp-83 % → +0 % · n 6/6 | -3,7 pp-23 % → -27 % · n 6/6 | +27,9 pp-69 % → -42 % · n 5/6 | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 31 · Fertilisers | +34,6 pp-15 % → +19 % · n 6/6 | -6,2 pp-20 % → -26 % · n 6/6 | +83,8 pp-72 % → +12 % · n 6/6 | +124,3 pp-26 % → +98 % · n 6/5 | —— → +21 % · n 1/3 | +24,4 pp-27 % → -2 % · n 4/6 |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 72 · Iron and steel | —-79 % → — · n 6/6 | — | —-91 % → — · n 4/6 | — | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 73 · Iron or steel articles | -63,5 pp+67 % → +3 % · n 6/6 | -44,5 pp+57 % → +12 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 76 · Aluminium | +7,2 pp-25 % → -18 % · n 6/6 | -0,4 pp-19 % → -20 % · n 6/6 | -11,3 pp-11 % → -22 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 5 · 2024-10-04 | 03 · Fish, crustaceans | +7,4 pp+7 % → +14 % · n 6/6 | — | +12,7 pp+4 % → +17 % · n 6/6 | — | — | -19,6 pp+24 % → +4 % · n 6/6 |
| 5 · 2024-10-04 | 07 · Vegetables | -7,0 pp+9 % → +2 % · n 6/6 | -7,3 pp+5 % → -3 % · n 6/6 | -12,1 pp+19 % → +7 % · n 6/6 | — | —-73 % → — · n 6/6 | +4,2 pp+26 % → +30 % · n 6/6 |
| 5 · 2024-10-04 | 08 · Fruit | +50,0 pp-6 % → +44 % · n 6/6 | +38,9 pp-12 % → +27 % · n 6/6 | +46,2 pp-6 % → +40 % · n 6/6 | —+7 % → — · n 6/6 | +7,8 pp+58 % → +66 % · n 6/6 | — |
| 6 · 2025-10-03 | 03 · Fish, crustaceans | -17,9 pp+2 % → -16 % · n 6/6 | — | -11,8 pp-0 % → -12 % · n 6/6 | — | — | -26,6 pp+0 % → -26 % · n 6/6 |
| 6 · 2025-10-03 | 07 · Vegetables | -8,8 pp+7 % → -2 % · n 6/6 | -4,2 pp-1 % → -5 % · n 6/6 | -15,2 pp+28 % → +13 % · n 6/6 | — | — | -25,9 pp+3 % → -23 % · n 6/6 |
| 6 · 2025-10-03 | 08 · Fruit | -57,1 pp+43 % → -14 % · n 6/6 | -57,1 pp+34 % → -23 % · n 6/6 | -57,8 pp+49 % → -8 % · n 6/6 | -108,2 pp+33 % → -75 % · n 6/6 | +88,3 pp+8 % → +96 % · n 6/6 | —— → -67 % · n 6/6 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | -9,7 pp+12 % → +3 % · n 6/6 | — | +59,9 pp-6 % → +54 % · n 6/6 | -8,9 pp-55 % → -64 % · n 6/6 | — | —+5 % → — · n 6/6 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 27 · Fuels, electricity | -75,1 pp-7 % → -82 % · n 6/6 | — | -68,3 pp-15 % → -83 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 28 · Inorganic chemicals | +30,2 pp+7 % → +37 % · n 6/6 | -72,6 pp+73 % → +0 % · n 6/6 | +54,1 pp+10 % → +65 % · n 6/6 | +35,9 pp-41 % → -5 % · n 6/6 | — | —-8 % → — · n 3/5 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 31 · Fertilisers | -25,0 pp-10 % → -35 % · n 6/6 | -33,5 pp+11 % → -23 % · n 6/6 | -57,3 pp+9 % → -48 % · n 6/6 | -17,6 pp+17 % → -0 % · n 6/6 | -89,4 pp+26 % → -64 % · n 4/4 | -89,9 pp+49 % → -41 % · n 6/5 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 72 · Iron and steel | -45,0 pp+10 % → -35 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 73 · Iron or steel articles | -40,3 pp+23 % → -17 % · n 6/6 | -42,8 pp+34 % → -9 % · n 6/6 | —— → -49 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 76 · Aluminium | -17,9 pp+22 % → +4 % · n 6/6 | +4,0 pp-19 % → -15 % · n 6/6 | -11,2 pp+26 % → +15 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
For each event and affected chapter: the year-on-year change of the 6 months from the event, minus that of the 6 months before (percentage points). Months are compared with the same months a year earlier to remove seasonality. n = months available on each side.
Change around ECB decisions (EU27, total)
| Date | Instrument | difference |
|---|---|---|
| 14 شتنبر 2022 | 0% → 0.75% | —— → +12 % · n 0/2 |
| 2 نونبر 2022 | 0.75% → 1.5% | —— → +12 % · n 0/4 |
| 21 دجنبر 2022 | 1.5% → 2% | —— → +10 % · n 0/5 |
| 8 فبراير 2023 | 2% → 2.5% | -2,2 pp+11 % → +8 % · n 1/6 |
| 22 مارس 2023 | 2.5% → 3% | -4,6 pp+12 % → +7 % · n 2/6 |
| 10 ماي 2023 | 3% → 3.25% | -8,5 pp+12 % → +4 % · n 4/6 |
| 21 يونيو 2023 | 3.25% → 3.5% | -4,6 pp+10 % → +6 % · n 5/6 |
| 2 غشت 2023 | 3.5% → 3.75% | -1,5 pp+8 % → +7 % · n 6/6 |
| 20 شتنبر 2023 | 3.75% → 4% | +1,1 pp+7 % → +8 % · n 6/6 |
| 12 يونيو 2024 | 4% → 3.75% | +0,2 pp+8 % → +8 % · n 6/6 |
| 18 شتنبر 2024 | 3.75% → 3.5% | +0,4 pp+6 % → +6 % · n 6/6 |
| 23 أكتوبر 2024 | 3.5% → 3.25% | -0,4 pp+8 % → +7 % · n 6/6 |
| 18 دجنبر 2024 | 3.25% → 3% | -3,9 pp+8 % → +4 % · n 6/6 |
| 5 فبراير 2025 | 3% → 2.75% | -2,4 pp+8 % → +5 % · n 6/6 |
| 12 مارس 2025 | 2.75% → 2.5% | -0,3 pp+6 % → +6 % · n 6/6 |
| 23 أبريل 2025 | 2.5% → 2.25% | -4,2 pp+7 % → +3 % · n 6/6 |
| 11 يونيو 2025 | 2.25% → 2% | -6,7 pp+4 % → -2 % · n 6/6 |
| 17 يونيو 2026 | 2% → 2.25% | +4,2 pp+4 % → +8 % · n 6/3 |
Mirror gap around the event
Gap in the year before the event and the year after (n = 1 year on each side). “Not comparable” when a reporting break separates them.
مؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي للمغرب
| Indicator | Latest | Projection | Read on | sha256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth IMF WEO | 4,9 % (2025) | 4,5 % (2026) | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | 5200170b0f19 |
| Inflation (average consumer prices) IMF WEO | 0,8 % (2025) | 0,9 % (2026) | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | e36fb78dc58c |
| Current account (% of GDP) IMF WEO | -2,4 % (2025) | -4,9 % (2026) | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | dc00ba1e7723 |
| General government gross debt (% of GDP) IMF WEO | 66,6 % (2025) | 66,6 % (2026) | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | bacd0d83be00 |
| Trade (% of GDP) World Bank WDI | 93,1 % (2025) | — | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | 67f1e66c2b79 |
| Personal remittances received World Bank WDI | USD 13,7 bn (2025) | — | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | d03dc997daa5 |
| FDI, net inflows World Bank WDI | USD 3,3 bn (2025) | — | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | e36c381cd4ee |
| Total reserves including gold World Bank WDI | USD 48,5 bn (2025) | — | 29 أكتوبر 2026 | 1a8092232011 |
IMF World Economic Outlook (via DataMapper) and World Bank World Development Indicators. Years from the current year on are IMF projections. Vintage: date first read.
أسعار الفائدة
- ECB deposit facility rate
- 2,50 %
- since 16 شتنبر 2026
Bank Al-Maghrib: policy rate not carried, for want of a stable machine-readable source; reserves come from the IMF and the World Bank.
المصادر والتراخيص والوثائق المؤرشفة
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409 — Commission Decision 2011/833/EU (reuse with acknowledgement).
- IMF DataMapper / WEO — IMF Copyright and Usage (publication with attribution).
- World Bank WDI — CC BY 4.0.
- ECB Data Portal — reuse with source attribution.
- UN Comtrade public preview — UNVERIFIED: derived ratios only.
- Regulation (EU) 2023/956, Annex I — eur-lex.europa.eu.
| Official source | kind | sha256 | Read on |
|---|---|---|---|
| cbam_definitive_regime | regulation | 9d7af18c50e7e6b3… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| cbam_legislation | regulation | f69438ab80671b95… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| cbam_overview | regulation | 9d4c6ac4ff3f1434… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| cbam_transitional_archive | regulation | ca6229025d0d05e1… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| cjeu_pr_169_24 | policy | 66d5a743b7b59375… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| cjeu_pr_170_24 | policy | a306bb56fa7913e3… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| ecb_monetary_decisions | policy | ec1b94f63c60efa7… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| ecb_reuse | licence | 18a1120d28dcf300… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| eu_morocco_trade | policy | 667a6efef8eba3cf… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| eurostat_copyright | licence | 397380ef7c40cc5d… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| imf_terms | licence | c1d932fb11f68f22… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
| worldbank_licence | licence | c7c9b31441ea4a1f… | 29 أكتوبر 2026 |
Every licence, regulation and policy page relied on is archived with the SHA-256 of the bytes received (append-only table macro_documents).
Not harvested: Office des Changes (the site serves only a JavaScript shell), ANP / Tanger Med port traffic (narrative PDFs without a stable index), marchespublics.gov.ma and tgr.gov.ma (HTTP 403, not bypassed), EUR-Lex (empty 202 to automated clients; the regulation is cited and the Commission’s pages are archived).
syznn-macro@1.1.0