Morocco – European Union: trade and macro context
Morocco’s goods trade with the EU and its five largest EU partners, exposure to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), IMF and World Bank indicators, ECB rates, and the gap between what Morocco declares and what its partners declare. Each displayed series cites its publisher, its licence and the SHA-256 of the response it was read from; the fingerprint identifies the response, it does not on its own prove each value. Descriptive only, never advice.
At a glance
- EU imports from Morocco, 12 months
- 26.4 EUR bn
- +1.7 % year on year · 2026-08
- EU exports to Morocco, 12 months
- 37.6 EUR bn
- +3.5 % year on year
- EU share of Morocco-declared exports
- —
- · UN Comtrade
- CBAM goods in EU imports from Morocco
- —
- 2025 · Eurostat · Incomplete for 2025: 30 product series lack all twelve months. A missing product is never counted as zero.
The European Commission states, for 2025, an EU share of 33.7 % of Morocco’s goods trade, on a different basis (archived page below).
EU27 – Morocco trade by month (EUR)
EU imports from MoroccoEU exports to Morocco
Source: Eurostat Comext DS-045409, member-state declarations. Vertical lines: events from the register below (numbered); ticks along the bottom: ECB deposit-rate changes.
By partner and HS chapter, last 12 months
| Chapter | EU27 | France | Spain | Belgium | Germany | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 26,429+2 % | 6,668+1 % | 10,506+3 % | 1,360+1 % | 1,668+10 % | 1,831-11 % |
| 03 · Fish, crustaceans | 1,126-9 % | 5+33 % | 798-10 % | —— | —— | 257-3 % |
| 07 · Vegetables | 1,666-3 % | 970-6 % | 542+11 % | 5+16 % | 5-38 % | 16-17 % |
| 08 · Fruit | 1,436-8 % | 371-13 % | 803-4 % | 17-34 % | 43+72 % | 5-58 % |
| 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | 287-2 % | 9+10 % | 83+18 % | 15-35 % | 1-47 % | 11+36 % |
| 27 · Fuels, electricity | 9-65 % | 1-9 % | 7-68 % | 0+31 % | —— | —— |
| 28 · Inorganic chemicals | 539+34 % | 71+22 % | 229+33 % | 128+8 % | —— | 25— |
| 31 · Fertilisers | 767-18 % | 106-17 % | 124-19 % | 75+25 % | 46— | 63— |
| 61 · Knitted apparel | 700-9 % | 174-19 % | 364-7 % | 5+394 % | 77-0 % | 11-21 % |
| 62 · Woven apparel | 1,913-4 % | 273-13 % | 1,282-1 % | 16-28 % | 88-7 % | 101+2 % |
| 72 · Iron and steel | 16+14 % | 1-58 % | 7— | —— | —— | —— |
| 73 · Iron or steel articles | 68-5 % | 47-1 % | 7-36 % | 1+217 % | 1-9 % | 4— |
| 76 · Aluminium | 117+8 % | 33-8 % | 62+13 % | 6+5 % | 6+241 % | 6-18 % |
| 85 · Electrical machinery | 6,762+10 % | 1,254+12 % | 3,252+4 % | 118+40 % | 855+19 % | 229-10 % |
| 87 · Vehicles | 6,001-4 % | 1,692-0 % | 1,280+5 % | 861-1 % | 105-24 % | 883-19 % |
| 88 · Aircraft | 529+13 % | 516+13 % | 2-1 % | 1+32 % | 8+21 % | —— |
| EU exports to Morocco | 37,554+3 % | 7,736+6 % | 12,599-0 % | 2,046+22 % | 3,867+5 % | 2,922-2 % |
EU imports from Morocco (EUR m). Value in EUR million and change on a year earlier. Chapters are Harmonized System chapters; HS2 rather than SITC so that trade and CBAM exposure share one classification.
CBAM exposure
| Group | Value (EUR m, 2025) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Cement | — | — |
| Electricity | — | — |
| Fertilisers | — | — |
| Iron and steel | — | — |
| Aluminium | — | — |
| Hydrogen | — | — |
| Total | — | — |
Goods in Annex I of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (cement, electricity, fertilisers, iron and steel, aluminium, hydrogen), matched at CN8 where the Annex names CN8 lines and at HS4/HS6 otherwise; every approximation and its measured effect is in data/cbam/annex-i.json. A trade-value share is not embedded emissions or a CBAM liability. Phosphate rock (2510), phosphoric acid (2809) and superphosphates (3103) are not CBAM goods.
Mirror gap: Morocco’s declarations against its partners’
Morocco’s exports to a partner (declared FOB by Morocco) against that partner’s imports from Morocco (declared CIF by the partner). Gap = declared imports ÷ declared exports − 1. A gap between 0 and +10 % is explained by freight and insurance alone.
A gap outside that band is not an established anomaly: origin-versus-destination attribution, transit and re-exports through third-country ports, timing, free zones, confidentiality suppressions and revisions all move it. No conclusion is drawn about any firm. Declared values come from the UN Comtrade public preview, whose redistribution licence is unverified, so only derived ratios are shown.
| Chapter | EU27 | France | Spain | Belgium | Germany | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | ||||||
| 03 · Fish, crustaceans | ||||||
| 07 · Vegetables | ||||||
| 08 · Fruit | ||||||
| 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | ||||||
| 27 · Fuels, electricity | ||||||
| 28 · Inorganic chemicals | ||||||
| 31 · Fertilisers | ||||||
| 61 · Knitted apparel | ||||||
| 62 · Woven apparel | ||||||
| 72 · Iron and steel | ||||||
| 73 · Iron or steel articles | ||||||
| 76 · Aluminium | ||||||
| 85 · Electrical machinery | ||||||
| 87 · Vehicles | ||||||
| 88 · Aircraft |
✓ inside CIF/FOB band (0 – 10 %). n.m.: under USD 10 m on at least one side; the ratio is not meaningful. EU27: member states covered: .
EU policy event register
Dated, sourced events that touch Morocco – EU trade. The differences below are “change around the event”, not effects: other forces act on the same months.
| # | Date | Instrument | HS chapters | Official source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 Mar 2000 | EU–Morocco Association Agreement (free trade area) enters into force | ALL | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 2 | 1 Oct 2012 | Agreement on additional liberalisation of trade in agricultural, processed agricultural and fisheries products enters into force | 03, 07, 08 | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 3 | 19 Jul 2019 | Amendment of the Association Agreement protocols extending tariff preferences to products originating in Western Sahara enters into force | 03, 07, 08 | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 4 | 1 Oct 2023 | CBAM transitional phase starts (reporting only, no certificates), Regulation (EU) 2023/956 | 25, 27, 28, 31, 72, 73, 76 | taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu |
| 5 | 4 Oct 2024 | Court of Justice judgments on the 2019 EU–Morocco agricultural and fisheries agreements (Joined Cases C-778/21 P and C-798/21 P; C-779/21 P and C-799/21 P) and on origin labelling of melons and tomatoes (Case C-399/22) | 03, 07, 08 | curia.europa.eu |
| 6 | 3 Oct 2025 | New amendment of the Association Agreement protocols (replacing the 2019 amendment) provisionally applied | 03, 07, 08 | policy.trade.ec.europa.eu |
| 7 | 1 Jan 2026 | CBAM definitive regime applies (authorised declarants and certificates; the Commission's definitive-regime page states a single 50-tonne mass threshold; Regulation (EU) 2025/2083 amended 2023/956) | 25, 27, 28, 31, 72, 73, 76 | taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu |
Change around the event (EU imports from Morocco)
| # | Chapter | EU27 | France | Spain | Belgium | Germany | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | +82.3 pp-46 % → +36 % · n 6/6 | —— → -34 % · n 6/6 | +151.0 pp-67 % → +84 % · n 6/6 | — | — | —-58 % → — · n 6/6 |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 27 · Fuels, electricity | +677.7 pp-46 % → +631 % · n 6/6 | — | +201.0 pp-44 % → +157 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 28 · Inorganic chemicals | +34.2 pp-60 % → -25 % · n 6/6 | +83.6 pp-83 % → +0 % · n 6/6 | -3.7 pp-23 % → -27 % · n 6/6 | +27.9 pp-69 % → -42 % · n 5/6 | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 31 · Fertilisers | +34.6 pp-15 % → +19 % · n 6/6 | -6.2 pp-20 % → -26 % · n 6/6 | +83.8 pp-72 % → +12 % · n 6/6 | +124.3 pp-26 % → +98 % · n 6/5 | —— → +21 % · n 1/3 | +24.4 pp-27 % → -2 % · n 4/6 |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 72 · Iron and steel | —-79 % → — · n 6/6 | — | —-91 % → — · n 4/6 | — | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 73 · Iron or steel articles | -63.5 pp+67 % → +3 % · n 6/6 | -44.5 pp+57 % → +12 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — | — |
| 4 · 2023-10-01 | 76 · Aluminium | +7.2 pp-25 % → -18 % · n 6/6 | -0.4 pp-19 % → -20 % · n 6/6 | -11.3 pp-11 % → -22 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 5 · 2024-10-04 | 03 · Fish, crustaceans | +7.4 pp+7 % → +14 % · n 6/6 | — | +12.7 pp+4 % → +17 % · n 6/6 | — | — | -19.6 pp+24 % → +4 % · n 6/6 |
| 5 · 2024-10-04 | 07 · Vegetables | -7.0 pp+9 % → +2 % · n 6/6 | -7.3 pp+5 % → -3 % · n 6/6 | -12.1 pp+19 % → +7 % · n 6/6 | — | —-73 % → — · n 6/6 | +4.2 pp+26 % → +30 % · n 6/6 |
| 5 · 2024-10-04 | 08 · Fruit | +50.0 pp-6 % → +44 % · n 6/6 | +38.9 pp-12 % → +27 % · n 6/6 | +46.2 pp-6 % → +40 % · n 6/6 | —+7 % → — · n 6/6 | +7.8 pp+58 % → +66 % · n 6/6 | — |
| 6 · 2025-10-03 | 03 · Fish, crustaceans | -17.9 pp+2 % → -16 % · n 6/6 | — | -11.8 pp-0 % → -12 % · n 6/6 | — | — | -26.6 pp+0 % → -26 % · n 6/6 |
| 6 · 2025-10-03 | 07 · Vegetables | -8.8 pp+7 % → -2 % · n 6/6 | -4.2 pp-1 % → -5 % · n 6/6 | -15.2 pp+28 % → +13 % · n 6/6 | — | — | -25.9 pp+3 % → -23 % · n 6/6 |
| 6 · 2025-10-03 | 08 · Fruit | -57.1 pp+43 % → -14 % · n 6/6 | -57.1 pp+34 % → -23 % · n 6/6 | -57.8 pp+49 % → -8 % · n 6/6 | -108.2 pp+33 % → -75 % · n 6/6 | +88.3 pp+8 % → +96 % · n 6/6 | —— → -67 % · n 6/6 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 25 · Salt, sulphur, earths, cement | -9.7 pp+12 % → +3 % · n 6/6 | — | +59.9 pp-6 % → +54 % · n 6/6 | -8.9 pp-55 % → -64 % · n 6/6 | — | —+5 % → — · n 6/6 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 27 · Fuels, electricity | -75.1 pp-7 % → -82 % · n 6/6 | — | -68.3 pp-15 % → -83 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 28 · Inorganic chemicals | +30.2 pp+7 % → +37 % · n 6/6 | -72.6 pp+73 % → +0 % · n 6/6 | +54.1 pp+10 % → +65 % · n 6/6 | +35.9 pp-41 % → -5 % · n 6/6 | — | —-8 % → — · n 3/5 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 31 · Fertilisers | -25.0 pp-10 % → -35 % · n 6/6 | -33.5 pp+11 % → -23 % · n 6/6 | -57.3 pp+9 % → -48 % · n 6/6 | -17.6 pp+17 % → -0 % · n 6/6 | -89.4 pp+26 % → -64 % · n 4/4 | -89.9 pp+49 % → -41 % · n 6/5 |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 72 · Iron and steel | -45.0 pp+10 % → -35 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 73 · Iron or steel articles | -40.3 pp+23 % → -17 % · n 6/6 | -42.8 pp+34 % → -9 % · n 6/6 | —— → -49 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
| 7 · 2026-01-01 | 76 · Aluminium | -17.9 pp+22 % → +4 % · n 6/6 | +4.0 pp-19 % → -15 % · n 6/6 | -11.2 pp+26 % → +15 % · n 6/6 | — | — | — |
For each event and affected chapter: the year-on-year change of the 6 months from the event, minus that of the 6 months before (percentage points). Months are compared with the same months a year earlier to remove seasonality. n = months available on each side.
Change around ECB decisions (EU27, total)
| Date | Instrument | difference |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Sept 2022 | 0% → 0.75% | —— → +12 % · n 0/2 |
| 2 Nov 2022 | 0.75% → 1.5% | —— → +12 % · n 0/4 |
| 21 Dec 2022 | 1.5% → 2% | —— → +10 % · n 0/5 |
| 8 Feb 2023 | 2% → 2.5% | -2.2 pp+11 % → +8 % · n 1/6 |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 2.5% → 3% | -4.6 pp+12 % → +7 % · n 2/6 |
| 10 May 2023 | 3% → 3.25% | -8.5 pp+12 % → +4 % · n 4/6 |
| 21 Jun 2023 | 3.25% → 3.5% | -4.6 pp+10 % → +6 % · n 5/6 |
| 2 Aug 2023 | 3.5% → 3.75% | -1.5 pp+8 % → +7 % · n 6/6 |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 3.75% → 4% | +1.1 pp+7 % → +8 % · n 6/6 |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 4% → 3.75% | +0.2 pp+8 % → +8 % · n 6/6 |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 3.75% → 3.5% | +0.4 pp+6 % → +6 % · n 6/6 |
| 23 Oct 2024 | 3.5% → 3.25% | -0.4 pp+8 % → +7 % · n 6/6 |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 3.25% → 3% | -3.9 pp+8 % → +4 % · n 6/6 |
| 5 Feb 2025 | 3% → 2.75% | -2.4 pp+8 % → +5 % · n 6/6 |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.75% → 2.5% | -0.3 pp+6 % → +6 % · n 6/6 |
| 23 Apr 2025 | 2.5% → 2.25% | -4.2 pp+7 % → +3 % · n 6/6 |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.25% → 2% | -6.7 pp+4 % → -2 % · n 6/6 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 2% → 2.25% | +4.2 pp+4 % → +8 % · n 6/3 |
Mirror gap around the event
Gap in the year before the event and the year after (n = 1 year on each side). “Not comparable” when a reporting break separates them.
Morocco macro indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Projection | Read on | sha256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth IMF WEO | 4.9 % (2025) | 4.5 % (2026) | 29 Oct 2026 | 5200170b0f19 |
| Inflation (average consumer prices) IMF WEO | 0.8 % (2025) | 0.9 % (2026) | 29 Oct 2026 | e36fb78dc58c |
| Current account (% of GDP) IMF WEO | -2.4 % (2025) | -4.9 % (2026) | 29 Oct 2026 | dc00ba1e7723 |
| General government gross debt (% of GDP) IMF WEO | 66.6 % (2025) | 66.6 % (2026) | 29 Oct 2026 | bacd0d83be00 |
| Trade (% of GDP) World Bank WDI | 93.1 % (2025) | — | 29 Oct 2026 | 67f1e66c2b79 |
| Personal remittances received World Bank WDI | USD 13.7 bn (2025) | — | 29 Oct 2026 | d03dc997daa5 |
| FDI, net inflows World Bank WDI | USD 3.3 bn (2025) | — | 29 Oct 2026 | e36c381cd4ee |
| Total reserves including gold World Bank WDI | USD 48.5 bn (2025) | — | 29 Oct 2026 | 1a8092232011 |
IMF World Economic Outlook (via DataMapper) and World Bank World Development Indicators. Years from the current year on are IMF projections. Vintage: date first read.
Rates
- ECB deposit facility rate
- 2.50 %
- since 16 Sept 2026
Bank Al-Maghrib: policy rate not carried, for want of a stable machine-readable source; reserves come from the IMF and the World Bank.
Sources, licences and archived documents
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409 — Commission Decision 2011/833/EU (reuse with acknowledgement).
- IMF DataMapper / WEO — IMF Copyright and Usage (publication with attribution).
- World Bank WDI — CC BY 4.0.
- ECB Data Portal — reuse with source attribution.
- UN Comtrade public preview — UNVERIFIED: derived ratios only.
- Regulation (EU) 2023/956, Annex I — eur-lex.europa.eu.
| Official source | kind | sha256 | Read on |
|---|---|---|---|
| cbam_definitive_regime | regulation | 9d7af18c50e7e6b3… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| cbam_legislation | regulation | f69438ab80671b95… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| cbam_overview | regulation | 9d4c6ac4ff3f1434… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| cbam_transitional_archive | regulation | ca6229025d0d05e1… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| cjeu_pr_169_24 | policy | 66d5a743b7b59375… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| cjeu_pr_170_24 | policy | a306bb56fa7913e3… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| ecb_monetary_decisions | policy | ec1b94f63c60efa7… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| ecb_reuse | licence | 18a1120d28dcf300… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| eu_morocco_trade | policy | 667a6efef8eba3cf… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| eurostat_copyright | licence | 397380ef7c40cc5d… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| imf_terms | licence | c1d932fb11f68f22… | 29 Oct 2026 |
| worldbank_licence | licence | c7c9b31441ea4a1f… | 29 Oct 2026 |
Every licence, regulation and policy page relied on is archived with the SHA-256 of the bytes received (append-only table macro_documents).
Not harvested: Office des Changes (the site serves only a JavaScript shell), ANP / Tanger Med port traffic (narrative PDFs without a stable index), marchespublics.gov.ma and tgr.gov.ma (HTTP 403, not bypassed), EUR-Lex (empty 202 to automated clients; the regulation is cited and the Commission’s pages are archived).
syznn-macro@1.1.0